Poll: Best kit for Chaos Dwarf Infernal Guard/Ironsworn?

I am glad you are finding it useful/interesting!  


You are correct about the Executioners vs. GW IG match up...




Once we factor in the price disparity, Executioners trade effectively against even the Ironsworn.  With a wound differential of only +0.8 and being down 9 models right from the start, our Ironsworn will lose in a protracted combat against the Executioners (especially as the Executioners strike before them).  Of course, the Executioners are far more vulnerable to ranged attacks.

Typically poison is very easy to calculate since it (usually) takes effect on a roll of "6", as such there there is a 1/6 chance that you land a poisoned hit per attack.  So if you were simply dealing with poison, you would multiply the number of attacks by 1/6  (or divide by 6, same thing) to calculate the poisoned hits.  

The witch elves in the scenario above are somewhat of a special case, because their ASF + high initiative allows them to re-roll misses to hit (and these re-rolls also have a chance of scoring a 6 to poison).

When fighting the IG, the witches hit on 4's.  Consequently, each witch attack has the following probability of outcome:

poisoned hits occur on a roll of 6's to hit = 1/6 chance to score a poisoned hit
regular hits occur on a roll of 4's or 5's to hit = 1/3 chance to score a regular hit
misses occur on a roll of 1's, 2's or 3's to hit = 1/2 chance to miss

So we then have to re-roll the misses (which equate to 1/2 of all attacks) and we have the same outcomes listed above.  So of all the attacks, 50% missed and are re-rolled, of which 1/6 will score a poison hit on the re-roll.

Therefore, to calculate poisoned hits in the scenario presented above, we have the following equation:
=[poisoned hits on initial roll to hit] + [poisoned hits on re-rolls to hit]
=[1/6] + [1/2 * 1/6]
=0.25

Hope that helps!

Nice nightbringer.

Can you also add in the WS4 swordsmen for the empire as well. Their higher WS and Parry save might actually help them perform better vs the Chaos Dwarfs.

Appreciate all your great work.

Sorry for the delayed response.  Let me answer your second question first, because it will make more sense that way.

So basically it is the same explanation as I gave for the Grave Guard killing blow in a previous post .  The probability is split between the two rows of their attacks (regular and killing blow).  That is why you see 12 attacks under each row, when they only have 12 attacks total.  If there was no murderous prowess, you would see a 66.67% to wound for their regular attacks (representing scoring wounds on rolls of 2, 3, 4 or 5's) and a 16.67% chance to killing blow wound (representing scoring KB wounds on rolls of 6's).  When you add these two probabilities up you arrive at the 83% chance to wound that would would expect to see when S6 is trying to wound T4.  The reason why you don't see these percentages in my breakdown for the Executioners is related directly to your first question... the inclusion of murderous prowess.

Now onto your first question.  Since we have murderous prowess, they no longer have an 83% chance to wound, because the 1's are re-rolled.  Now their chance to wound is 83% PLUS 83% of the 17% of attacks that originally missed (i.e. rolled a 1).  So their chance to wound is 5/6 + (1/6 * 5/6) = 97%.  That equation represents their total probability to wound (both regular and killing blow), but once again, as per the answer to your second question above, we have to split these between regular and killing blow wounds.  So we are left with:


regular wounds = 2/3+1/6*2/3 = 78%
KB wounds = =1/6+1/6*1/6 = 19%

When we add to together the regular wounds and KB wounds (78% + 19%) we arrive at the 97% chance to wound that we calculated above.

Hope that is a clear and useful clarification.

I really like this thread, makes me wonder over the great weapon choice and also that I should try the irons-sworn.

I will start a similar thread for wood elves and match out every matchup.

[mention]nightbringer [/mention] maybe when finished we should do a summery of positive and negative matchups?

Also let me know if there is any you want me to do

This time around we've got Savage Orc Big'Uns with extra hand weapons.  Due to the fact that the Choppas +1 bonus to strength only applies in the first round, I've shown two rounds of combat (assuming that we pass any applicable break tests)...




In the case of the IG with GWs and the Ironsworn, they both manage to break the Savage Orc's frenzy in the second round of combat (although just barely in the case of the IGs with GWs).  However, when you factor in the Orc's numerical advantage, a protracted combat is a losing proposition.

If someone could check the numbers, that would be appreciated.  With so many numbers staring back at me, errors begin to creep up.